Tehran’s dams are currently at about 19% capacity. Because of Iran’s history as a funder of terrorism, it is tempting to see the drought as payback. This may well affect the extent to which others will help Iran in its crisis. And that leaves aside the question of whether any country can actually help.
To sat that Iran’s problems are because it is intensely urbanised, needs context. After all, the population density of Britain is nearly five times that of Iran.
The population of Iran is 91.57 million. The population of the Tehran is 9.6 million but the population of the greater metropolitan area is 16.8 million. That equates to more than 18% of the population of the country living in the capital.
The combined populations of Iran’s next six biggest cities – Mashhad Isfahan, Karaj, Shiraz, Tabriz, and Qom – totals another 16 million people. So that equates to more than a third of the population of the country living in the cities.
But urbanisation in Iran is recent. Poor harvests have caused a drift to the cities. And it has left a gaping hole in rural areas where agriculture is outdated and inefficient, and there’s no one to work the fields. Yet agriculture in Iran consumes 90% of the available water.
Seven Lean Years?
Iran has had five consecutive years of drought. The rainfall in the last year has dropped by 45% below the longterm average, and by spring of this year, over half of Iran’s reservoirs were empty.
Temperatures have been over 50 °C in parts of Iran, worsening the crisis and triggering power and water outages. The prediction is that Tehran could be out of water within weeks. What happens when millions of people in the cities have no water?
Since May 2025, widespread protests have erupted across Iran over water and power shortages, particularly in the poorest areas, with a risk of social and political destabilisation.
Syria
Between 2006 and 2010, Syria had its worst ever drought. The UN estimated that around 800,000 farmers lost their livelihoods because of it. Crop failures triggered millions of Syrians coming to the cities. That led to protests, and from there to State repression and from there to civil war.
Afghanistan
Within the last year, Afghanistan built the Pashdan dam on the Harirud River that has dried up the Harirud border basin beyond the dam and threatened the city of Mashhad in Iran. Iran objects to the denial of access to a water source that it is says is intended to be for the benefit of the region. But what is it going to do?
It’s significant for Iran because the population of the Mashhad metropolitan area is 3.46 million, making it the second largest city in Iran after Tehran.
And it is not the only country affected by Afghanistan’s plans. When the Qosh Tepa canal is completed and starts diverting water to the north of the country, it will threaten the water supplies of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
In the longer term, what might happen? Social breakdown iand regime change in Iran might be a consequence of drought but it doesn’t solve the problem of lack of water.
Perhaps an alliance of Iran, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in a war against Afghanistan. It’s all possible, although how anyone could breach the Pashdan dam to restore the access is a nice question because it is a huge earth structure.
Perhaps Iran might accept technological help from Israel, the world’s leader in desalination. Iran has access to the Caspian Sea, which is about a third as saline as the oceans and you would think that is perfect for desalination. Israel has offered to help Iran with desalination but Iran has so far refused. That would be an interesting turnaround if Iran’s future was made more secure by Israel.