The Weather And Brexit

Here are a couple of observations about the weather and Brexit.

Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, said in his speech on 5th July that a full blown trade war was likely to hit the USA harder than it would any of the countries upon which tariffs were imposed.

He said that

the US economy is growing robustly, momentum has faded a little in the euro area and, more markedly, in some emerging market economies.

He also said that

The softness of UK activity in the first quarter was largely due to the weather, not the economic climate. A number of indicators of household spending and sentiment have bounced back strongly from what increasingly appears to have been erratic weakness in Q1.

Now we have a heatwave in the UK, so we shall very quickly see whether there is an uptick in Q2. That will show whether his analysis is right or whether he has to think of another reason why the economy does not pick up.

If he is right and the economy does pick up, it will be bad for last ditch efforts to reverse Brexit.

I remember my wife Tamara telling me on the morning of the UK referendum on leaving the EU ‘It is raining in London’. There was particularly heavy rain that day, some flooding in parts. It deterred people from voting.

My wife feared the result and predicted the result. London was and is a Remain stronghold. In a referendum, where every vote counts, those lost votes in London were crucial.

The weather and Brexit: Is the weather in charge of UK politics?