Politics

On 22 Dec, Michael Carpenter @mikercarpenterSenior Director @PennBiden. Former DASD for Russia/Balkans/Eurasia @DeptofDefense, Foreign Policy Advisor @JoeBiden, and Director for Russia @NSC44 published a long thread on Twitter.

I have no way of knowing what axe he may have to grind in this world where everything is hostage to misinformation, but I want to record what he tweeted – and we shall see how things play out. Here is what he tweeted:

1 A military incursion into Ukraine. The most likely target is the canal that feeds fresh water from the Dnieper river to Crimea. Without this water, Crimea’s agricultural sector goes under. Also look for Russia to seek complete dominance over the Sea of Azov and Kerch Strait.

2 A military flare-up in Nagorno-Karabakh if Prime Minister Pashinyan does not cater to corrupt Russian interests in Armenia.

3 Pressure on President Lukashenka to allow Russia to build a military base in Belarus, especially if the US green-lights the construction of “Fort Trump” in Poland. If Minsk resists, the Kremlin will be prepared to execute an Anschluss operation.

4 Russia and Iran take control of eastern Syria as the US withdraws and Turkey engages in cross-border attacks on Kurdish fighters. Over time this guarantees that disenfranchised Sunni Arabs radicalize into ISIS 2.0.

5 A growing Russian military presence in Libya helps General Haftar consolidate control of the country, which becomes a Russian protectorate.

6 Moscow arms the Taliban with more sophisticated weapons as the US draws down its forces and the NATO ISAF mission is stretched to the breaking point. Moscow displaces the US as the chief power-broker in Afghanistan and the Taliban comes back to power.

7 Moscow supports Bosnian President Milorad Dodik’s efforts to separate Republika Srpska from the rest of Bosnia and Herzegovina, risking a renewed ethnic conflict in the Balkans.

8 The Russian-Saudi relationship blossoms as Moscow sends more weapons to Saudi Arabia and coordinates further oil supply cuts.

9 EU sanctions on Russia fall apart as one of the EU member states breaks consensus in return for an undisclosed energy deal with Russia. The most likely candidates: Hungary, Italy, Austria.

10 The Kremlin’s active measures campaign in the US goes into overdrive as Russia seeks to shape the 2020 presidential field. Dark money becomes the main tool of Kremlin influence as Russia concludes that financing organic disinformation is more effective than offshore ops.

The opening lines of Auguries of Innocence by William Blake read as follows.

To see a World in a Grain of Sand
And a Heaven in a Wild Flower
Hold Infinity in the palm of your hand
And Eternity in an hour

The connection with ‘a grain of sand’ in Blake’s poem is a bit of a stretch. But the very smallness of a grain of anything brought to mind how Bloomberg published an article on October 4th. In it they claim that the Chinese government snuck a chip the size of a grain of rice onto the motherboards of servers built by the company Super Micro.

The ‘infected’ motherboards were sent to foreign customers including 30 US companies, some of which had US government contracts. The report refers to a major bank (not named) and to Apple and Amazon as being unwitting recipients of the boards.

Apple and Amazon have denied it. Bloomberg is a reputable news source. You would think they would not be given to make up a story ‘whole cloth’ as it were, without any evidence at all. So what is the truth of it?

Then, on 30th October Bloomberg published a short article in which it reported that Super Micro had said they had found no malicious software in its products.

It also reported that the U.S. Department of Homeland Security had said it has “no reason to doubt” Amazon and Apple’s denials of Bloomberg’s reporting.

So why do I feel that this story of auguries of innocence has a long way to run? Perhaps it will take years for the story to unfold.

Auguries of Innocence

The word ‘augur’, as you probably very well know, is an omen of what is to come. It can be for good or for bad. The poem Auguries of Innocence by William Blake, describes how the cruelties of man done against the animal life of the world does not augur well for human beings.

Update October 2020

On October 9, 2018, Bloomberg issued a second report, alleging that Supermicro-manufactured datacenter servers of a U.S. telecom firm had been compromised by a hardware implant on an Ethernet connector. The report cited Yossi Appleboum, former Israel intelligence officer and co founder of cyber security company Sepio Systems. He was said to have documented implants on various companies’ boards. How widespread is the problem, if it exists at all?

Remember the back and forth over the legality of President Trump’s travel ban?

Trump said it was not a travel ban that targeted muslims but a ban that targeted countries that might send people who posed a risk to the USA.

No one bought that argument because of what he had said previously and because the countries affected were Iraq, Syria, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, North Korea, and Venezuela – most of which are countries with majority muslim populations.

Courts ruled against the legality of the ban, and the Trump Administration re-crafted the wording. Courts ruled against that and the Trump Administration re-crafted the wording of the ban again. It is that third iteration that went before the Supreme Court.

What happened in the end?

The Supreme Court first decided that it would proceed as though it had jurisdiction to decide the case even though the granting of visas are matters of sovereignty, and might therefore be seen as being beyond review.

To me that reads like a decision to trundle along and see whether they hit any bumps in the road to their substantive decision. In the end they rule with the Administration, which is unlikely to challenge their jurisdiction, so the court gets home safe and dry.

The substantive decision:

In a 5–4 decision the Supreme Court ruled that the third iteration of the travel ban does not exceed the president’s authority under the Immigration and Nationality Act and that ban does not violate the Establishment Clause of the Constitution.

A win for the Administration.

The dissenting voices said that whatever the wording of the ban, when viewed together with what was spoken about by the President and the Administration about the intent of President Trump’s travel ban, it was clearly not about security but about religion.

The question for me is what the practical consequences have been? What is actually happening in terms of who can and cannot get into the country and in terms of who is trying or no longer trying to get in?

Here are a couple of observations about the weather and Brexit.

Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, said in his speech on 5th July that a full blown trade war was likely to hit the USA harder than it would any of the countries upon which tariffs were imposed.

He said that

the US economy is growing robustly, momentum has faded a little in the euro area and, more markedly, in some emerging market economies.

He also said that

The softness of UK activity in the first quarter was largely due to the weather, not the economic climate. A number of indicators of household spending and sentiment have bounced back strongly from what increasingly appears to have been erratic weakness in Q1.

Now we have a heatwave in the UK, so we shall very quickly see whether there is an uptick in Q2. That will show whether his analysis is right or whether he has to think of another reason why the economy does not pick up.

If he is right and the economy does pick up, it will be bad for last ditch efforts to reverse Brexit.

I remember my wife Tamara telling me on the morning of the UK referendum on leaving the EU ‘It is raining in London’. There was particularly heavy rain that day, some flooding in parts. It deterred people from voting.

My wife feared the result and predicted the result. London was and is a Remain stronghold. In a referendum, where every vote counts, those lost votes in London were crucial.

The weather and Brexit: Is the weather in charge of UK politics?