The Immigrant In The Room

The experts never had a chance against the threat of the immigrant in the room.

It truly didn’t matter how much the experts told Middle England the economy would tank if Britain left the EU. All Middle England heard was that leaving would stop those bloody immigrants and that’s what mattered.

Yes, they can allow London to be a melting pot. But Middle England doesn’t want immigrants messing up its vision of English life in the provinces.

The immigrant in the room is OK as long as the immigrant is in someone else’s room.

How can you counter that when the free movement of people is a fundamental pillar of the EU?

With hindsight, the architects of the EU might agree that the idea of the free movement of people is flawed.

They might recognise that giving people the right to work anywhere in the EU doesn’t take account of the fact that people are not just workers, they are people.

With hindsight they might see that people are not nomads floating like specks of dust to the nearest work hotspot.

In fact, say the Left, that was the idea. Corporations want to treat workers as faceless, replaceable units.

Jeremy Corbyn thinks the EU is a creature of corporations who use it to outflank collective bargaining.

When a workforce isn’t playing ball, both sides know that threatening to move production to Poland is a hollow threat but importing Polish workers who will work for less pay is a real threat.

Game, set, and match.

Corbyn Got What He Wanted

That’s why Corbyn made such an obvious dog’s breakfast of saying the opposite.

It was patently obvious during the lead up to the referendum that he was at war with his own Cabinet.

First he tried hiding in small venues up and down the country. Then he came out and delivered his message with such reluctance that anyone wondering where he stood could see he had a gun to his back.

Corbyn was sly by winking to his audience to tell them he was being forced to take a line he didn’t agree with.

The risk he ran, and the race he still has to run is whether he came across as muddled at best and disingenuous at worst – or whether with the old cadre gone he can forge a new face for Labour.

Personally I don’t like what he did. By all means be disingenuous with your political opponents. But don’t do it to your audience.

Nigel Farage sensed the zeitgeist; he knew what bigotry there was in the heartland of England. He knew he could swing enough votes to make a difference. He just didn’t imagine it would be enough to swing the decision.

So when Corbyn’s tactic coincided with the Middle England anti-immigrant voice, it created a storm that took the Leave campaign over the finish line – to everyone’s surprise.

Corbyn got what he wanted – and we are out of the EU. He was very quick to say there was no backtracking from that.

So where are we now?

Corbyn thought the overwhelmingly important issues for the populace were fair working conditions and a fair society.

It turns out that immigration of the ‘because they’re different’ kind was the most important decider for a lot of voters.

The elephant in the room after the referendum is still the question of immigration.

So now we have Corbyn’s version of the Left against Farage’s version of the Right. It’s a contest that Europe has seen before.

Strangely, the marginalised group are the moderate Conservatives.

Coda

Things are moving so rapidly that by the time I hit Publish, Corbyn may be either undisputed leader or out of the race entirely.

Brexit the Unthinkable

People sticking it in Cameron’s eye as payback for all the hurt and pain he showered on them. People not knowing that the other eye was theirs and they just struck themselves blind.

Or was it Middle Englanders, sure of the way we can forge a new path. Ha!

Cameron – well he got his comeuppance. And that tiny spark of pleasure is no pleasure at all compared to the pain he meted out with his last gasp.

I should have known. For years I said that I didn’t want to involve myself in any social or political movement in England because I didn’t think it would do any good because people just seem to want to be mean-spirited. What is it with them?

I should have known. This is the people that complained about the Tories and then elected them for a second term. I’m alright Jack, I’ve got mine.

Everyone wants to know ‘why’. Well it’s the same reason they voted the Tories in. The English voted in the meanest people to do their dirty work for them.

Does no one recognise that it’s just a bloody accident of opportunity as to which minority group gets it in the neck? It’s the scroungers ruining the country. It’s the immigrants. It’s the scapegoats. It’s always their bloody fault.

That’s Britain to a T. Sweep it under the carpet and pretend the place is clean.

I keep coming back to the class system. Look at Cameron and Corbyn. They could be characters from the Two Ronnies. “I look down on him because he’s working class…”

Is that where the pain comes from? Is that what they heard in the ‘Take our country back’ message?

The EU Referendum – A Long Week In Politics

It’s been a strange week in British politics. The EU referendum has driven every other kind of political question to the margins. The only question is IN or OUT of the European Union.

It is an open secret as to why we are having a referendum at all. It is because the Prime Minister, David Comeron, feared a takeover by an alliance of the far right of his own Conservative Party and United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP).

He was accused at the time of putting party politics above the health of the nation.

When he went to Brussels to negotiate changes, he said that by holding a referendum the Euro partners would know that he wasn’t just posturing when he set out his demands.

And then he came back and pulled out of his hat a small or non-existent rabbit, or a big rabbit – depending on who is telling the story.

Then the campaigning got under way and his message was that we would risk falling off a cliff if we voted to leave.

Well if that was true when he said it, it was true before he went to Brussels and he should never have risked the decision to a vote that was out of his control. Not if he believed in the principle rather than the desire to hold onto power.

How Real Is UKIP

So how real is the threat from UKIP? If there are only a few UKIP supporters, then they aren’t much of a threat.

After the national election, Lord Leach of Fairford, Chairman of Open Europe, wrote to the Times saying what would have happened had the German form of PR applied in the general election.

Under that system, any party getting less than five percent of the vote is not allocated seats. The reason for that is to prevent a huge number of parties with one or two votes each swamping the actual business of government.

And what would have happened is that we would have had the Conservatives with 275 seats, labour 229, UKIP 92, Lib Dems 54 and no seats for any of the other parties. That is, the SNP would not have got any seats at all.

The Scottish National Party swept the board in Scotland – but only because it has 56 constituencies in a country that is only five-million people out of a total UK population of sixty-four million.

In other words, our first-past-the-post system and the constituency boundaries that apply in elections hide the fact that UKIP has a large base of support.

Here are the numbers for the seats, the number gained and lost in the election, the actual number of the popular vote and the percentage of the vote that the number represents.

Conservatives 330 (+37, -10) 11,334,726 36.9%
Labour 232 (+23, -48) 9,347,324 30.4%
SNP 56 (+50, -0) 1,454,436 4.7%
Green 1 (+0, -0) 1,156,149 3.8%
Lib Dems 8 (+0, -48) 2,415,862 7.9%
UKIP 1 (+0, -1) 3,881,099 12.6%

Nearly four-million people voted for UKIP. But they only got one seat in Parliament.

So the threat was real and Cameron has played it well – well that is if the Remain camp wins.

But what a risk to take.

My Prediction Is…

I think the vote will go with David Cameron and the Remain camp.

And if it does, then he will be saved again. And for some stupid reason, people will think he was the better option and we will all love the moderate Tories. Ha!

It’s All Connected

First published 31 Jul 2013

I remember sitting by the side of a field years ago and gently unfurling a leaf. Inside the curled up leaf there was an orange, slightly translucent earwig with nasty-looking pincers.

I opened more leaves and there were more earwigs. Some leaves had several earwigs tucked inside them.

Wriggling, segmented, translucent orange insects with big pincers were not top of my list for beauty and I remember thinking that the earwigs were invaders. That was in the days when I saw everything as disconnected.

And yet I saw myself as a keen nature lover. I often went out and looked at birds and trees and plants and fungi and insects, and at just about everything from the clouds to the sea to the earth and the rocks. I could see myself as a keen nature lover and yet dislike certain parts of it.

That wasn’t so strange, was it? After all, some parts of nature are definitely unpleasant for humans if they come in contact with them. But reflecting on how I saw things it is also true that I saw nature as disconnected.

Now, over the years I have come to see that the leaf depends on the earwig and the earwig depends on the leaf. I see that there will be something – a microbe, a bacterium, a process – something that dictates that the balance is preserved as long as there are leaves for earwigs to curl up in, and earwigs for leaves to curl around. It’s a connected world.

I see that the balance will be broken if there are no earwigs. If that happens then somewhere down the line there will not be any leaves.

All of which leaves me with another question, which is to wonder how finely balanced the balance of nature is. We see every day that nature is resilient and able to recover. But maybe it has weak points where a small change would tear it apart. I shouldn’t walk around fearful of that tear in the fabric of nature, but we humans do seem like the kid with a stick, poking at something and surprised when it breaks.